Figure 3 provides a hypothetical scenario
for the diversification of Mitthyridium
both in time and space. This hypothetical situation helps depict
the potential results of the present study and their implications.
The figure assumes an accurate phylogeny, reliable time estimates for T1-T5
(as well as node times reconstructed at the population level), knowledge
of biogeographic pattern and accurate island ages. With these data,
one can explore different avenues for diversification rate changes as for
example:
I. Major lineages of Mitthyridium form deeper (T1 and T2) and
occur prior to the availability of particular archipelagos.
II. Dispersal events occur both east and west from Mitthyridiumís origin.
III.These dispersal events are followed by either
a.) immediate loss of dispersability, with a subsequent
diversification rate increase (suggesting that other factors besides dispersability
loss influenced the heightened diversification)
b.) dispersability loss and rate increase are coincident
(suggesting a causal relationship). Mitthyridium
is expected to provide the necessary data to answer the main questions
in this proposal which are here reconsidered:
1. Given the full phylogeny, what are the time estimates for each node
(Figure 3)? Age estimates will rely heavily
on the availability of genes of varying lambda. rbcL will resolve deeper
splits in the phylogeny such as T1 and T2. rps4 will resolve intermediate
splits, like T3. The cpDNA spacers and adk will resolve population
splits occuring at T4 and within boxes (Figure
3). Extinction may safely be eliminated from the formula, such that
time estimates may be made using origination alone (e.g., Sanderson, 1998);
2. how do time estimates for splitting events compare with continent
and island ages? (Yet to be determined);
3. does Mitthyridium exhibit a diversification rate shift and if so,
why?;
4. is this rate shift time coincident with the loss of dispersability
(as provided by data on sexuality)? Taken together these questions
with the answers that follow will allow for a rigorous examination of the
causes behind radiations on oceanic islands, and their consequent patterns.